Using front lines to predict deaths in the Bosnian civil war. 2012.
To be useful for forecasting and prediction, a statistical model needs to be feasible given the data it requires. This paper examines the relationship between front lines and other, time-invariant variables, and killings during the Bosnian civil war from 1992 to 1995. It uses a Bayesian spatial count model to estimate and compare model fit to other, more established conflict models.
Presented at the 2012 IA conference in San Diego, California and the 2012 SPSA conference in New Orleans, Louisiana.
Explaining and predicting interstate war deaths. 2011.
How accurately can current rationalist conflict theories predict future interstate war deaths? Data on 89 interstate wars between 1815 and 1991 is used to estimate a truncated regression model that provides the basis for out-of sample forecasts for two other wars.
Earlier version presented as poster at the 2008 PSS(I) meeting in Claremont, California.